Assuming that the race is indeed tightening, as McCain supporters hope, I made what would could be called McCain’s Best Case Scenario Map. I gave McCain all the toss up states according to Pollster.com’s composite trend estimates, and even some of the big states that are currently leaning Obama, such as Virginia, Florida, and Ohio. Basically, any state within 7 points either way I put in McCain’s column.
Being this generous with McCain’s chances, he still loses 265 to 273.
At the risk of jinxing it, I must say I don’t see how Obama can lose unless something extremely dramatic happens in one of those blue states on my map within the next 2 days. No poll aggregate has moved more than 7 pts in a week, let alone 48 hours.
Pessimists may now spread your apocalyptic dread in the comments below — or make your own map with LA Times’s vote calculator.
Update — Polling wonk Nate Silver pretty much agrees.