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November 02, 2008
McCain’s Best Case Scenario
Assuming that the race is indeed tightening, as McCain supporters hope, I made what would could be called McCain’s Best Case Scenario Map. I gave McCain all the toss up states according to Pollster.com’s composite trend estimates, and even some of the big states that are currently leaning Obama, such as Virginia, Florida, and Ohio. Basically, any state within 7 points either way I put in McCain’s column.
Being this generous with McCain’s chances, he still loses 265 to 273.
At the risk of jinxing it, I must say I don’t see how Obama can lose unless something extremely dramatic happens in one of those blue states on my map within the next 2 days. No poll aggregate has moved more than 7 pts in a week, let alone 48 hours.
Pessimists may now spread your apocalyptic dread in the comments below — or make your own map with LA Times’s vote calculator.
Update — Polling wonk Nate Silver pretty much agrees.
November 2, 2008 | filed under Current Affairs | Permalink
Comments
Oh god, I did this exact same thing. I can't wait for the election to be over, it's driving me craaaaazy.
Posted by: Jordan Scrivner at Nov 3, 2008 8:45:49 AM
If your election were in France: Obama is prefer over McCain at 85%. :)
Anyway, the world can't wait for _good_ results too.
Posted by: Jean François Porchez at Nov 3, 2008 10:31:41 AM
hope yer right stewfen!
Posted by: Jen at Nov 3, 2008 1:48:30 PM
